Occasionally, you find a player that is the perfect microcosm for his team. The Nationals embody underachievement in every possible way. They underachieved to the point where they fired their manager despite finishing second in the NL East. Everyone expected them to win the division and advance to the World Series with a tantalizing pitching staff and the best young player in the game today.
Anthony Rendon is not in the same category as Bryce Harper (literally only one or two players fit in that category with him) but after a strong 2014 campaign, people were pegging him as one of the best young hitters in the game. The Nationals selected him number six overall as a former Golden Spikes Award winner, so expectations were high to begin with. But what has happened to this point could charitably be called a failure to launch.
He came up in 2013 and performed reasonably well. That progress continued in 2014 when he hit 21 home runs and scored more than 100 runs. The fact that he added 17 stolen bases on knees that had already suffered through catastrophic injuries in college was just an added bonus. As opposed to his college days, the injuries in 2015 could be classified as nuisance injuries, but it does make you wonder if he will ever get it together. Ironically, we have the exact same opinion of the Nationals as a whole.
Where he has been
| AVG | HR | Runs | RBI | SB | |
| 2013 | .265 | 7 | 40 | 35 | 1 |
| 2014 | .287 | 21 | 111 | 83 | 17 |
| 2015 | .264 | 5 | 43 | 25 | 1 |
The folks at Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus have a lot of time on their hands to study player performance, but you don’t have to have a degree in advanced statistics to see what is going on here. Simply put, no one is quite sure who the real Anthony Rendon is. He has only been healthy for two seasons counting his time in college, the minors, and the big leagues. So, when do we dispense with the “if he is healthy he could……” talk? Still, there is always that chance that he could turn in a healthy season and put it all together.
The trouble is that we really don’t know what that kind of season would look like. When a player enters the season healthy, it is difficult to project how many games they will miss due to injury. You are predicting something that hasn’t happened yet, but experience tells you it will inevitably happen. The experts have done about as good a job as can be expected coming up with approximate numbers.
Where he could go
| AVG | HR | Runs | RBI | SB | |
| Depth Charts | .273 | 15 | 76 | 60 | 6 |
| Steamer | .277 | 15 | 76 | 61 | 6 |
| ZIPS | .270 | 13 | 67 | 52 | 6 |
Like with all of the other players we have profiled, these represent the numbers that Rendon has already produced extrapolated over a number of at bats they expect him to play. Rendon is eligible at second base and third base in most leagues, so these numbers will undoubtedly play up because of his versatility.
However, you will notice that they don’t expect him to have the same power numbers and the same speed numbers. Still, these numbers will fit somewhere in your starting lineup. Keep in mind that all of the experts expect him to miss some time due to injuries. So, this will be one spot where we see a difference between the experts and the rosy picture.
A Rosy Picture
| AVG | HR | Runs | RBI | SB | |
| 600 PA | .275 | 14 | 81 | 60 | 8 |
Clearly, based on what he has already done, the power and speed that Rendon displayed in 2014 is likely a mirage. Still, he looks to be a productive hitter if he’s healthy and the Nationals lineup has enough good hitters where he can produce runs. Additionally, his walk rate will help him be a threat on top of the order even if he doesn’t add speed. So, fantasy players will roll the dice yet again on whether this will be the season where Rendon is finally healthy.